Results of a new poll administered by Middle Tn. State University were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Tennessee for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Middle Tn. State University poll results
Of those who replied, 40.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 50.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 28 and October 2. The sample size was 472 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 44.4% for Clinton and 55.6% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.3 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.