Results of a new poll carried out by Detroit Free Press were published. The poll asked participants from Michigan for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Detroit Free Press poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% are going to give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 1 to October 3 among 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan has Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Michigan. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.