FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
According to the results, 51.0% of interviewees intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 23 to October 23 with 1241 likely voters. The error margin is +/-2.8 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they can include substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump. To compare: Only 52.8% was obtained by Clinton in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll on September 7, for Trump this result was 47.2%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.9%. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Michigan.