Goucher College published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Goucher College poll results
Of those who replied, 58.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.3 points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.4%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher College poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 66.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.