On October 26, OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30, among a random sample of 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 69.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. Compared to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 66.3% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.