Press Herald/UNH published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Press Herald/UNH poll results
Of those who answered the question, 40.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 15 to September 20, among a random sample of 513 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maine. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Press Herald/UNH poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Maine. This means that Polly's prediction is 3.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.