FOX 8/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
FOX 8/Mason-Dixon poll results
The results show that 34.0% of respondents would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 54.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 17 to October 19 among 625 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 38.6% for Clinton and 61.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Louisiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 58.5%. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the FOX 8/Mason-Dixon poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.9 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.