UMass Amherst/WBZ published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
UMass Amherst/WBZ poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 15 to September 20 among 700 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.3 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 58.2% for Clinton and 41.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 64.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Massachusetts. Compared to her numbers in the UMass Amherst/WBZ poll Clinton's poll average is 5.9 percentage points better. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 6.7 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.