Results of a new poll conducted by Rutgers-Eagleton were released. The poll asked respondents from New Jersey for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Rutgers-Eagleton poll results
Of those who answered the question, 59.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 6 to September 10 with 735 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-3.5 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 62.8% for Clinton and 37.2% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of New Jersey polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 56.3%. Relative to her numbers in the Rutgers-Eagleton poll Clinton's poll average is 6.5 percentage points worse. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. Hence, the PollyVote is 3.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is significant.