MPRC (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
MPRC (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 14 to October 15 among 890 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maine sees Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the MPRC (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 1.8 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Maine. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.