Results of a new poll conducted by Loras were published. The poll asked respondents from Illinois for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Loras poll results
The results show that 47.0% of interviewees are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 13 to September 16 with 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.3% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 59.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Illinois. Relative to her numbers in the Loras poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.4% of the two-party vote in Illinois. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.