KOMO/Strategies 360 released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KOMO/Strategies 360 poll results
Of those who answered the question, 50.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 29 to October 3 among 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 60.2% for Clinton and 39.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Washington sees Clinton at 58.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the KOMO/Strategies 360 poll Clinton's poll average is 2.1 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.