Results of a new poll carried out by KATU-TV/SurveyUSA were spread. The poll asked respondents from Oregon for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
KATU-TV/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 48.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 12. A total of 654 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 55.8% for Clinton and 44.2% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Oregon polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.2%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KATU-TV/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Oregon. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.