Boston Globe/Suffolk released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Historically, New Hampshire has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular importance.
Boston Globe/Suffolk poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 3 to October 5, among a random sample of 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 54.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Hampshire. This value is 3.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Boston Globe/Suffolk poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.0 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.