KOB-TV/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
KOB-TV/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 28 to October 2 among 594 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 58.2% for Clinton and 41.8% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently achieves 57.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in New Mexico. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KOB-TV/SurveyUSA poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 56.4% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.