Kentucky: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 35.5% for Clinton, and 64.5% for Trump in Kentucky.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.