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Kentucky: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 34.5% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, while Trump will win 65.5%. In comparison, on October 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 65.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 62.0% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 3.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Kentucky.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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