The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models often contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton can currently count on 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.6 percentage points higher.
The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.