Des Moines Register published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Iowa were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In Iowa, the election outcome is often close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Des Moines Register poll results
Of those who replied, 39.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 3 to October 6. A total of 642 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Iowa polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 51.9%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Des Moines Register poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Iowa. This means that the PollyVote is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.