WISH-TV published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
WISH-TV poll results
According to the results, 37.0% of participants intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 10 and October 16. The sample size was 544 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 46.3% for Clinton and 53.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Indiana sees Trump at 53.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the WISH-TV poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Indiana. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.5 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is negligible.