The Simon Poll/SIU published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
The Simon Poll/SIU poll results
Of those who answered the question, 53.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2 among 865 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 59.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Illinois. This value is 6.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the The Simon Poll/SIU poll. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.5% of the two-party vote in Illinois. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 5.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is significant.