The Holbrook & DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 53.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 46.8%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 50.4% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points lower.
The Holbrook & DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Holbrook & DeSart model.