Atlanta Journal released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Atlanta Journal poll results
The results show that 42.0% of respondents intend to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 17 and October 20. The sample size was 839 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't rely too much on the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump. On May 12 Clinton obtained only 47.7% in the Atlanta Journal poll and Trump obtained 52.3%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Georgia polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 52.3%. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Atlanta Journal poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.