Georgia: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead
The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.5% for Clinton, and 51.5% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on October 27 Trump was still predicted to obtain 51.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.