FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 25 to October 25. A total of 1030 likely voters responded. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump. On October 23 Clinton received 54.3% in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll and Trump received only 45.7%.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 54.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Michigan. Compared to her numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.0 point above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.