Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 53.8% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 46.2%. In comparison, on October 25 Trump was predicted to achieve 45.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.5%. In comparison to numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 3.3 percentage points worse.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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