The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 58.8% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will end up with 41.2%. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 58.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.