The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 54.7% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will win 45.3%. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to win only 54.1% of the vote.
In New Hampshire, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they may include large biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.