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Crosstab model in Iowa: Trump is in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 49.7% for Clinton, and 50.3% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 49.3% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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