The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on October 27, Clinton was predicted to win only 51.0% of the vote.
In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.