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Consensus among component methods about election outcome


Polly currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expectation polls with a vote share of 54.1% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 58.2% of the vote.

A trend favoring Clinton has appeared in the aggregated polls, the prediction markets and the index models. The trend continued for the longest time in the index models — within 11 days Clinton's vote share has increased by 0.6 percentage points. Trump has however continuously become more popular in expert surveys and Citizen forecasts. Upward trend has persisted in expert surveys, he was able to obtain 2.5 percentage points during the past 26 days.

In comparison to previous elections, the Democrats' forecast of 53.2% in aggregated polls is notably high. The last time the forecast exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. At that time, combined polls predicted a vote share of 55.5% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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