Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were spread. The poll asked participants from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 among 1000 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.0 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that the PollyVote is 1.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.