KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll on October 26. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 56.0% of interviewees said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 15 with 725 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton is currently at 63.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. In comparison to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is negligible.