Results of a new national poll conducted by ABC were distributed. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
ABC poll results
Of those who responded, 51.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 22 and October 25. The sample size was 1135 participants. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. In the most recent ABC poll on October 24 Clinton received 54.3%, while Trump received only 45.7%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the ABC poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.3 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.