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538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, and 47.3% for Trump. In comparison, on October 24 Trump was predicted to win 47.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they often contain large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.3%. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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