Elway published the results of a new poll on October 24. In this poll, respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22 among 502 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 60.8% for Clinton and 39.2% for Trump. For comparison: 64.2% was obtained by Clinton in the Elway poll on August 13, for Trump this result was only 35.8%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 58.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Washington. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Elway poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.1% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that the PollyVote is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.