IBD/TIPP published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
IBD/TIPP poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out between October 20 and October 25. The sample size was 921 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump. To compare: Only 50.6% was obtained by Clinton in the IBD/TIPP poll on October 24, for Trump this result was 49.4%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 2.9 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.