Vanderbilt University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Vanderbilt University poll results
Of those who replied, 33.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 19 and October 2. The sample size was 1000 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.8 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.