Results of a new national poll administered by IBD were announced. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
IBD poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 25 with 921 respondents. The margin of error is +/-3.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump. In the most recent IBD poll on October 24 Clinton obtained only 50.6%, while Trump obtained 49.4%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the IBD poll Clinton's poll average is 2.1 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.9 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.