Results of a new poll carried out by Siena were published on October 26. The poll asked participants from New York for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Siena poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of participants intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 17 with 611 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 62.5%. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that the PollyVote is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.