Reuters published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Reuters poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 20 to October 24, among a random sample of 1170 participants. The error margin is +/-3.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 53.8% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. On October 17 Clinton obtained only 52.4% in the Reuters poll and Trump obtained 47.6%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.3%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Reuters poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.3 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.