Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Remington Research (R) poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% are going to give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22. A total of 1795 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.3 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't be too confident the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Wisconsin polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.6%. In comparison to her numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.