Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Virginia is traditionally a purple state, where Republicans and Democrats have historically won similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22, among a random sample of 1787 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Virginia polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.8%. This value is 2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Virginia. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.