Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Remington Research (R) poll results
The results show that 45.0% of respondents intend to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22 among 1997 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 52.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is significant.