Oklahoma: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead
The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 34.9% for Clinton, and 65.2% for Trump in Oklahoma. In comparison, on October 26, Clinton was predicted to gain only 34.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 64.1% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.