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Ohio: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.3% for Clinton, and 50.7% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on October 26, Clinton was predicted to achieve 49.7% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often gained similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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