Crosstab model in New Jersey: Clinton is in the lead
The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.4% for Clinton, and 41.6% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on October 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 42.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.