Crosstab model in New Jersey: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.4% for Clinton, and 41.6% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on October 26 Trump was still predicted to obtain 42.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.3% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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