New Hampshire: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 54.1% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will win 45.9%.

In New Hampshire, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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