Results of a new national poll administered by ABC News were announced. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
ABC News poll results
According to the results, 51.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% will cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out via phone from October 21 to October 24 among 1119 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.3% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump. To compare: 56.4% was gained by Clinton in the ABC News poll on October 22, for Trump this number was only 43.6%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the ABC News poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.2 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.