NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular interest.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
The results show that the two candidates have equal levels of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
The poll was in the field between October 20 and October 24. The sample size was 707 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 51.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Nevada. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.1 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Clinton has 2.7 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Nevada. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is significant.